The Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) announced a significant downward revision in job numbers, with 911,000 fewer jobs added in the year ending March 2025 than previously reported. This revision marks the largest on record, surpassing the previous record of 818,000 in 2024. The BLS has come under scrutiny for its methodology, especially with the recent departure of former commissioner Erika McEntarfer amidst accusations of data manipulation by President Trump. The new chief economist, E.J. Antoni, faces challenges in adjusting the models to account for the surge in new business formations.
The BLS utilizes the birth-death model to estimate new business activity, but the unprecedented increase in filings since the pandemic has led to significant discrepancies in the job numbers. Economists at Goldman Sachs noted that the model may have been overly optimistic in the second half of 2024, leading to inaccurate job projections. The inability of the BLS to accurately capture the evolving job market poses challenges for policymakers and analysts alike.
Heather Long, chief economist at Navy Federal Credit Union, highlighted the impact of the surge in new business formations on the job numbers. With low barriers to entry and a growing interest in entrepreneurship, the future of these new ventures remains uncertain. The ongoing revisions underscore the need for the BLS to adapt its models to reflect the changing dynamics of the labor market.